Trivariate copula to design coastal structures

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract. Some coastal structures must be redesigned in the future due to rising sea levels caused by climate change. The design of subjected actions waves requires an accurate estimate long return period such parameters as wave height, period, storm surge and more specifically their joint exceedance probabilities. simplified Defra method that is currently used particular for European makes it possible directly connect probabilities product univariate means a single factor. These schematic correlations do not, however, represent all complexity reality because use this That may lead damaging errors structure design. aim paper therefore remedy lack robustness these current approaches. To end, we copula theory with function aggregates distribution functions margins. We select bivariate adapted our application likelihood method. In order integrate extreme events, also resort notion tail dependence. optimal parameter estimated through analysis dependence coefficient, mean error. most robust copulas practical case applications Saint-Malo Le Havre (in northern France) are Clayton survival Gumbel copula. originality creation new trivariate sensitivity construction choice Firstly, best fitting its two correlated Secondly, build function. For purpose, aggregate remaining margin parameter. show satisfies mathematical properties finally 10, 100 1000 years. conclude important accuracy than own construction.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['1561-8633', '1684-9981']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-239-2021